Pakistan and India: a new nuclear war? 

By: Isciane Genuist

On April 22nd, a terrorist attack occurred in the city of Pahalgam, India, killing twenty-six civilians, twenty-five Indian nationals and one Nepalese tourist. This incident marks one of the deadliest attacks in the mountainous region of Kashmir in the past two decades. Kashmir, located in northern India and bordering both China and Pakistan, has long been a point of tension. Although no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Indian authorities placed the blame on Pakistan, specifically accusing the jihadist group Jaish-e-Mohammed, which has denied any involvement.

The attack triggered significant military and diplomatic tensions. Gunfire was exchanged across the border, and both countries took retaliatory measures including the closure of airspace, suspension of bilateral agreements, and cancellation of visas. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi authorized a military response. Between the night of May 6th and 7th, India launched a military operation named ‘Sindoor’ targeting nine locations in Pakistan believed to house terrorist infrastructure, one of which was a mosque. India stated the strikes were carefully targeted to protect civilians. In contrast, Pakistan reported thirty-seven deaths and around sixty injuries, accusing India of damaging a hydroelectric dam. In this way, Pakistan labeled the Indian action a declaration of war. In response, Pakistan launched artillery fire and claimed to have downed five Indian fighter jets, including three Rafale aircraft manufactured in France. It also announced the destruction of seventy-seven Israeli-made drones deployed by India since the night of May 6th. India reported further nighttime attacks resulting in sixteen more deaths and responded by requesting platform X (formerly Twitter) to block over 8,000 accounts, including those of celebrities and Pakistani media. Pakistan urged the international community to condemn India’s actions. In response, Turkey warned that “Indian attack raises risk of all-out war.” while there are supposed to be allies. 

The conflict is rooted in a complex historical context. From the 18th century onward, the British gradually took control of the Indian subcontinent, officially making it a colony of the British Empire in 1858. British rule brought major social, economic, and political changes, but also led to growing demands for independence. Tensions between Hindus and Muslims increased during the struggle for independence. The Indian National Congress, led by figures like Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru, mainly represented Hindu interests, while the All-India Muslim League, led by Muhammad Ali Jinnah, pushed for a separate Muslim state. These tensions culminated in the Partition of British India in 1947, which created two independent nations: India (with a Hindu majority) and Pakistan (with a Muslim majority. The partition caused massive population movements, violence, and the deaths of up to a million people. Since independence, India and Pakistan have had a tense and often hostile relationship, marked by several wars, especially over the disputed region of Kashmir, and ongoing political and religious tensions. Despite this, both countries have developed significantly in their own ways and continue to play important roles in South Asian and global affairs.

Beyond its military significance, Kashmir is also critical for its water resources. In the wake of the April attack, India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which governs water sharing between the two countries. This decision threatens to cut off a crucial waterway that originates in India and irrigates large parts of Pakistan, raising fears of a major agricultural and economic crisis.

Consequently to the attack, the international community reacted swiftly. France’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, stated that “we understand India’s desire to protect itself against the scourge of terrorism,” while also urging both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and protect civilians. France also reaffirmed its close ties with India, including arms sales and collaborations in artificial intelligence. Former US President Donald Trump expressed hope that the conflict would de-escalate quickly. The UK government announced its readiness to intervene should tensions rise further. Meanwhile, the United Nations emphasized that the world must not allow a military confrontation to erupt.

A ceasefire was finally announced by Donald Trump via his social media platform, Truth Social, on May 10th, and confirmed by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister on platform X. India also confirmed the ceasefire, which officially took effect at 5:00 PM local time (7:00 PM ECT). However, the exact circumstances leading to the ceasefire remain unclear. While some sources suggest it was the result of bilateral talks between India and Pakistan, US Secretary Marco Rubio claimed that the agreement followed negotiations involving himself, JD Vance, Vice President of the US, and the Prime Ministers of both countries, along with other officials.

It remains to be seen whether the ceasefire will hold and be respected by all parties involved, or whether, as in the case of Ukraine, it will be violated, as Kyiv has accused Russia of doing during the brief truce of May 8th.

Sources:

 Rawnsley, J. (2025) Global leaders call for ‘de-escalation’ of India-Pakistan tensions. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78j8vdlg38o

 Afp, L.F.A. (2025) ‘L’Inde ordonne à X de bloquer plus de 8000 comptes, dont des médias internationaux,’ Le Figaro, 9 May. https://www.lefigaro.fr/secteur/high-tech/l-inde-ordonne-a-x-de-bloquer-plus-de-8000-comptes-dont-des-medias-internationaux-20250509.


 Sharma, Y. (2025) ‘‘High risks’: Indian attacks in Pakistan raise fears of wider conflict,’ Al Jazeera, 7 May. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/7/high-risks-indian-attacks-in-pakistan-raise-fears-of-wider-conflict.

Provot, C.C.E.M. (2025) ‘Conflit Inde – Pakistan : au moins 43 morts dans la plus grave confrontation depuis 2008,’ Ouest-France.fr, 7 May. https://www.ouest-france.fr/monde/inde/direct-conflit-inde-pakistan-au-moins-34-morts-des-avions-de-chasse-abattus-d490232c-9595-4fbc-90bc-2da31cfee0d9

Siddiqui, U. (2025) ‘Did Pakistan shoot down five Indian fighter jets? What we know,’ Al Jazeera, 14 May. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/14/did-pakistan-shoot-down-five-indian-fighter-jets-what-we-know.

Ouest-France (2025) ‘Nouvelles attaques de drones en Inde et au Pakistan qui se renvoient la responsabilité des combats,’ Ouest-France.fr, 9 May. https://www.ouest-france.fr/monde/inde/nouvelles-attaques-de-drones-en-inde-et-au-pakistan-qui-se-renvoient-la-responsabilite-des-combats-c2f274da-2cfa-11f0-bcfe-3a5efa388100

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