By: Isciane Genuist  

On November 17th, the United States (U.S.) authorized Ukraine to use their long-range weapons for the first time on Russian territory since the full-scale invasion started. These weapons were reportedly used by Ukraine during the night of November 19th to target a military site in Russia’s Bryansk border region. Russia has accused Ukraine of deploying 6 of these weapons in the attack.

The decision to authorize Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons comes after months of Ukrainian requests, which the U.S. had initially declined due to concerns over escalating tensions. However, Ukraine faces significant challenges on the battlefield; On the night of November 17th, Russian airstrikes targeted Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure, resulting in 10 fatalities and 20 injuries. Moreover, since August, Ukraine controls a part of the region of Kursk in Russia but is under heavy pressure from a Russian counteroffensive involving 50,000 troops, including 10,000 North Korean soldiers.  Additionally, Trump was recently elected as the new President of the U.S., which may have influenced Joe Biden’s decision. 

Indeed, Trump, who will take office in January, promised during his electoral campaign to resolve the Ukrainian war within twenty-four hours without explaining his approach. However, most experts believe it is not a genuine statement, just an election trick. The Republican party is skeptical of the American aid toward Ukraine, which could make the future president push for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the U.S. as mediators. Such talks could pressure Ukraine to cede territories to Russia, like the regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, given its current disadvantage. Biden’s decision to permit long-range weapons may aim to bolster Ukraine’s standing, ensuring it can retain gains like its hold on the Kursk region. Nevertheless, some Ukrainians are critical of Biden’s stance viewing it as insufficient to counter Russia’s advances, potentially leading to Ukraine’s gradual weakening. As a result, Trump’s election is welcomed by certain Ukrainians who hope for a more decisive resolution.

Will long-range weapons alter the course of the war? These American weapons, equipped with high-precision explosives, can strike targets up to 300 kilometers away. Since 2023, France, the U.S. and the United Kingdom (UK) have supplied long-range weapons to Ukraine but restricted their use to Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia, prohibiting strikes within Russia itself. Since Biden’s recent decision, Ukraine is now authorized to target Russian military infrastructure on Russian soil. This decision could prompt other nations like France and the U.K., which are open to the idea, to follow suit, though Germany remains opposed. However, the overall impact of using these weapons may be limited, as Russia has been anticipating their deployments for months. Thus, this shift is seen more as a symbolic gesture than a game-changer.

In response to the announcement, the Kremlin spokesperson stated on November 18th that “the US was adding oil to the fire” and the Russian diplomacy promised a “tangible response” (add a citation) if Ukraine used these weapons. President Putin also issued a warning, claiming that by authorizing the use of long-range weapons, the US risks dragging all NATO countries into a direct conflict with Russia. 

On one hand, on November 19th, Putin signed a decree to expand the possibility of using nuclear weapons, especially if a range weapon was used against Russia. Since September, Russia has repeatedly referenced the potential use of nuclear weapons, and on November 21th, Putin described the conflict in Ukraine as global. He didn’t deny a possible   defensive strategy if Russia was attacked by weapons of mass destruction and threatened the existence of the country. 

This doctrine has been changed by the new decree. It now states that an attack by a non-nuclear state, if supported by a nuclear power, will be considered as a “joint attack”, potentially justifying a nuclear response. This directly implicates Ukraine, which is backed by nuclear states like France and the U.S., could have participated in a “joint attack” and potentially be eligible for retaliation. Additionally, the decree classifies large-scale air or space-based attacks such as drones strikes, as triggers for a nuclear response. Finally, the decree includes Belarus as an ally, meaning that if Belarus is attacked, Russia will launch a nuclear response. 

General and deputy Andrey Gurulyo described it, this decree is a clear warning to those threatening Russia, a country with an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 nuclear warheads. Since the beginning of the conflict, Russia uses this threat as a dissuasion strategy and threaten to impress occidental countries in order to stop them from supporting Ukraine. Moreover, the US National Security Council has noted no significant movements of Russian nuclear assets, reinforcing the view that these threats are largely rhetorical especially because Russia is in a superior position compared to Ukraine. However, Russia’s withdrawal from the New START treaty in 2023, a nuclear disarmament agreement signed with the U.S. in 2010, has added to global tensions. While Russia’s military position is bolstered by North Korean support, its nuclear threats are perceived as part of a strategy of verbal escalation rather than an immediate operational shift.   

On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed concerns during an interview with Fox News on November 20th, stating he fears a potential defeat against the Russian army if U.S. aid ends following Trump’s election victory. The American financing is the first financial support with more than 600 billion dollars since the beginning of the war in February 2022. While he pledged to continue fighting, he admitted that victory seems unattainable without U.S. backing. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine is struggling to maintain its military ranks. Videos circulating on social media depict Ukrainian officers forcibly conscripting men by taking them in vans as we can see with Franceinfo. Since April, all men aged 25 and older (reduced from 27 previously) are subject to mandatory military service, with restrictions preventing them from leaving the country in early 2022. Despite these measures, many young men have evaded conscription while Ukraine plans to mobilize 60,000 soldiers between November and February to reinforce its army against Russia. Authorities have been ordered to secure recruits at all costs, including conducting raids in shopping malls and restaurants to identify and detain men of fighting age. There are also efforts to recruit from among the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who fled the country illegally at the start of the war to avoid conscription.