Two centuries ago, Napoleon warned, “Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” Today China has awakened, and the world is beginning to shake (Allison, 2018). Formally known as the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the implications of various aspects of China’s rise, from its expanding influence and military muscle to its growing demand for energy supplies, are being heatedly debated in the international community as well as within China (Bijian, 2005). In October 1949, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader, Mao Zedong, declared the creation of the PRC. The announcement ended the costly full-scale civil war between the CCP and the Nationalist Kuomintang Party, which broke out immediately following World War II (U.S. Gov., n.d.). Despite this China has, according to the World Bank, “experienced the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in the world” (Hang, 2017). However, economic growth alone does not paint a full picture of a country’s development and thus, when discussing the changing global power dynamics in 2023, the global order has to be considered in terms of the duality of the interstate system and the world economy. This case study examines China’s position in the global order, namely in regard to its socioeconomic interstate relations. This essay is divided into two major sections: firstly, an analysis of China’s rise in the global order from a classical realist approach, with a particular focus on Thucydides; and secondly, an investigation of the relationship between China’s Marxist-Leninist state ideologies, their economic prosperity, and their standing as a global power.

Realism is a perspective in international relations that stresses the importance of power and security issues. Classical realism can be distinguished from other forms of realism as it emphasises human nature as the central factor in explaining sovereign state behaviour and the causes of inter-state conflict. Classical realist theory adopts a pessimistic view of human nature and argues that humans are not fundamentally benevolent but instead, they are self-interested and act out of fear or aggression. Furthermore, it stresses that human nature is reflected by states in international politics due to international anarchy (Donnelly, 2000). Comprehension of the realist ideological framework is imperative in regard to the delicacy of changing power dynamics between sovereign political entities and the subsequent threat of conflict that can occur when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing regional or international hegemon. For example, in the case of China and the United States of America, China’s rapid rise in the world economy poses a geopolitical challenge to the U.S.’s dominant status and position in world politics and risks falling into a trap first identified by the ancient Greek philosopher Thucydides. Writing about a war that devastated the two leading city-states of classical Greece two and a half millennia ago, he explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that make war inevitable”, also known as Thucydides Trap (Allison, 2018). ‘Thucydides Trap’ offers an insightful analysis of how a typical realist scholar may perceive China’s economic and political rise: as a disruption to global power dynamics and having the potential to result in international conflict.

Marxism is a socioeconomic philosophy that posits that the struggle between social classes – specifically between the bourgeoisie, or capitalists, and the proletariat, or workers – defines economic relations in a capitalist economy and will lead inevitably to a communist revolution (Team I.T., 2023). The government of the People’s Republic of China is a Marxist-Leninist authoritarian political system under the exclusive political leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. By the late 1970s, the new post-Mao Chinese leadership was determined to change the internal development strategies based on self-reliance in order to place the emphasis on the modernization of Chinese industry and the raising of agricultural production. The key source of a state’s growth is new capital and technology and the quickest way to obtain this seemed to be through increased economic intercourse with the capitalist world; thus the new development strategy, by its insistence that improvement of productive forces had priority over the collective, implied both a drastic change in production relations and a need to expand economic relations with the outside world, i.e. the capitalist world economy, in order to import (Cox, 1987). Thus, following the 1978 economic reforms that integrated them into the global market economy, China’s socialist market economy theoretically represented a preliminary stage of developing socialism. However, most commentators in the West, from both the Right and Left, believe that China is becoming increasingly ‘capitalist’ (Cui, 2012). To summarise, since the economic reform in 1978, China has averaged 9.4 per cent annual GDP growth, one of the highest growth rates in the world (Bijian, 2005). Although paradoxical, China’s combination of socialist society and market economy has enabled it to transform not only global supply chains, but also international diplomacy, leveraging its success to become the primary trading and development partner for emerging economies across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

In conclusion, this essay examines China’s rise in the global order from multiple perspectives, emphasising that China’s economic growth, although impressive, is not the sole determinant of its development. From a classical realist approach, the essay discusses the concept of the “Thucydides Trap” and how China’s rapid rise poses a geopolitical challenge to existing powers like the United States. It raises the possibility of international conflict as power dynamics shift in the global arena. Additionally, the essay explores the interplay between China’s Marxist-Leninist state ideologies and its economic prosperity. It notes China’s shift from self-reliance to integration into the global market economy and the implications of its socialist market economy model. While some perceive China as increasingly capitalist, its success has transformed global supply chains and positioned it as a prominent trading and development partner for emerging economies. Overall, this essay highlights the complexities of China’s rise in the global order, considering realist perspectives, socioeconomic ideologies, and economic development. It underscores the need for a comprehensive understanding of China’s evolving role and its implications for the international community. As China continues to shape the world stage, it becomes increasingly vital to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by its awakening.

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