Past Policy Imperatives in the Face of Adversity: EU Energy Crisis 2022/23

Authored by: Swastik Pravit Jallepalli, Alicia Tremel, Ruxandra Botas, Matyáš Holub and Joséphine Cauwe

Abstract

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has found itself in a difficult stance regarding its member states’ energy policies. The crises of the last three years have left many economies crippled, with inflation rates skyrocketing and food and housing prices reaching unbearable highs for many civilians. This policy brief covers a total of five countries – the Visegrád Four members and Germany – providing an overall synthesis of each state’s approach towards tackling the energy crisis and giving sustainable advice in multiple areas of policy for each one of the cases studied.

Introduction

Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic had already taken its toll on the European states. The concern of the rise in inflation has put all European economies under stress, and now that Russian fossil fuels have become a stigmatized reserve, everyone is struggling to maintain their balance, while administrations cling on to their frayed legitimacy in front of a burdened civil society (Gosling 2023). The unprovoked attack on Ukraine determined the EU to adopt several packages of sanctions against the Russian economy, which included targeted restrictive measures (individual sanctions), economic sanctions and visa bans. However, the measures taken against Russia’s energy supply chain have echoed the most throughout European society. The V4 countries, because of being so heavily reliant on Russian fossil fuels, have been deeply affected by the current energy crisis. What is even worse is that none of the four members has been able to reach the average share of renewables in the EU states energy mix (21.8%) (Gosling 2023). For all these reasons, it was decided to compare the ongoing energy crisis in Germany and in the Visegrád countries. Because of its continental influence, Germany can be considered a model of conduct for the other EU members during these unstable times. The following chapters discuss each country’s overall approach on the energy crisis and provide recommendations to the respective governments.

  1. Germany Context and Impact
    Germany has been severely affected by the energy crisis. Gas prices have risen immensely and have been accompanied by a loss of purchasing power for the economy (Holtemöller et al., 2022, 762). As a result, the economy, which was already harshly affected by the Covid crisis, cannot fully recover and slips into a recession (ibid, 762). The gas supply situation in Germany is extremely tense, as a large part of the gas supplies from Russia are no longer available and demand still has to be covered (ibid 762). Under normal weather conditions, Germany is not expected to experience a gas shortage, but the risk has nevertheless increased (ibid., 762). For the population, this means sharply rising consumer prices and reduced purchasing power. Private consumption is expected to fall severely (ibid., 763). According to the federal government, Germany is getting through the winter well and the gas supply in Germany is considered stable. A gas supply management report gives an overview of the current situation and finds that the total gas storage level is at 71.13%. Temperature-adjusted consumption is in the tight range, however, there is no need to worry (Bundesnetzagentur, 2023). Inflation is expected to continue to rise over the next few months and will slowly balance out again in the next few years (Holtemöller et al., 2022, 764). The labor market has a stabilizing effect on economic development. The demand for workers will decrease for the time being, but due to the shortage of skilled workers, employment is anticipated to decrease slightly (ibid., 764).

Governmental Response
The German federal government is working for more climate protection and a secure energy supply. The aim is to quickly limit dependence on Russian resources. In addition, Germany is to become less dependent on fossil fuels. The measures taken for this include filling up the gas storage facilities, which include the purchase of 950 million cubic meters of natural gas, and regular controls of the reservoir levels. Since January 1 2023, Germany has stopped receiving oil from Russia. Russian coal and gas supply has been drastically lowered, and, thanks to increased natural gas deliveries from Norway and the Netherlands, as well as additional LPG imports, Germany is largely independent from Russian energy supply (Bundesregierung, 2023a). In addition, three relief packages have already been launched to relieve the burden of price increases on private households and companies (Holtemöller et al., 2022). Together they amount to around 300 billion euros (Bundesregierung, 2023b). These relief packages include, among others, relief payments for students and pensioners and an energy lump sum in the amount of 300€ per employee. The electricity and gas price control ensures that private households, small and medium-sized companies with less than 1.5 million kilowatt hours of gas consumption per year, and education and care institutions will benefit from a capped gas price at 12 cents per kilowatt hour (Rinaldi, 2022). The gas and electricity price control is financed by the Economic Stabilization Fund (WSF). 200 billion euros are available (Tagesschau, 2022b). Further, the relief packages include a reduced public transport ticket, an increase in child benefit payments, a home office lump sum, and an extension of housing benefits (Tagesschau, 2022a). The so-called hardship fund has a volume of 12 billion euros and additionally relieves consumers, small companies, care, and cultural institutions (ibid.). The housing benefits are meant for people who do not receive social benefits but have little money at their disposal. It is financed by the federal government and the federal states. The Federal Government also supports the federal states and municipalities in accommodating refugees with an investment of an additional 1.5 billion euros (ibid.).

Policy Advice
The recommendations for Germany include further investments in innovative technologies to develop alternative sources of energy. It is also to be hoped that the relief packages can come into force as planned and that society can be given the best possible support. Further, in the long term, investments should be made in renewable energy to avoid dependence on Russia in the future. The federal government has already announced a faster expansion of renewable energy in Germany, and it is to be hoped that the efforts will continue in the future.

  1. Czech Republic

Context and Impact
The Czech Republic is now living in a political crisis in addition to an energy one. After the vote of confidence given to the government, tens of thousands of Czech people – most attached to the far-right party (Reuters, 2022) – demonstrated in the streets against the government (Carter, 2022). Indeed, with the rhetoric shifting from seeing the crisis as innately harmful to the lower class to now also threatening the middle class, which, as is the case in most developed nations, is the portion of the population on which the state treasury relies the most vis-à-vis taxes and “profits” (Jack and Moens, 2022). An overarching issue for the Czech Republic is also the fact that it had to balance its power within the international community during its presidency of the Council of the European Union and the domestic way in which it addresses the crisis its nation is going through (ibid). Creating a strong problem felt in most of the countries hard-hit by the energy crisis, that being the shift of voter preferences to far-right and populist politicians (Jewell, 2022).

Governmental Response
Governmental responses to the Energy Crisis manifest in two main ways, that is the Energy Price Cap and a Windfall tax. The former of which is a cap on prices of electricity and gas. Huge Czech energy-supplying firms such as Pražská Plynárenská, ČEZ, E.ON, and Pražská Energetika have since come out saying that they will be increasing energy prices further in 2023 (iDNES.cz, November 25 2022). The Windfall tax being a tax of 60% exercised on “excess profits” of companies profiting from and as a result of the Energy Crisis, Post-Covid market changes and Russian aggression in Ukraine (Willoughby, 2022). This tax will take effect at the start of 2022 and will continue up until the year 2025, mainly targeting banks, energy-supplying firms, and petroleum companies. This policy, as is prepared now, should yield an estimated profit for the governmental treasury of about 80 billion CZK (iDNES.cz, November 24, 2022). In addition, by 2033, the Czech government plans to give up coal in energy production to be more involved in the development of nuclear energy (Janicek, 2022), which is considered to be a domestic – and therefore more reliable – energy source (Kratochvíl & Mišík, 2020).

Policy Advice
It is essential to work to avoid a national political crisis caused by the lack of trust held by the government. The main recommendation and the point of contention of this topic is rather clear, that being the need to protect the Czech consumers more, not only through an innately subsidising project such as the Energy Price Cap, but also protect them for the future, which due to the aforementioned increases in energy-supplying firms pricing is going to be incredibly hard-hitting. Hence a policy program can be suggested that would check the fiscal burden of energy-supplying firms due to cost fluctuation of supply chains adjusted for inflation, (de/a)preciation of currencies used in the process, and market changes caused by external factors and based upon these findings would flexibly restrict unnecessary and exploitative price increases of this effectively oligopoly-based field of the Czech market. Moreover, a strong shift towards nuclear energy as well as independent energy infrastructure are both crucial long-term steps that the Czech Republic ought to explore, due to its still rather extensive dependence on Russian gas.
In the long term, as a victim of European – Russian tensions, the Czech Republic should diversify its energy supplies. In this way, the government has to fight for the autonomy of the Czech energy policy instead of pushing for stronger ties to the EU. The main goal, for now, is to work on a “well-equipped” and “autonomous” country that is less vulnerable to future crises (ibid). While ensuring this, it is also important to reinforce the importance of the Czech Republic as a player in the transition to green energy (European Commission, 2021). To do so, it is essential to take new measures to fight climate change by exploring new sustainable sources of energy (Matusik & Koci, 2019).

  1. Slovakia

Context and Impact
Slovakia is hit particularly hard by the energy crisis. Even before the outbreak of war and the acute transnational crisis, Slovakia was considered a country with prevailing energy poverty (Koďouskova and Bořuta, 2022). According to Hudec, Slovakia is the V4 country that is the most affected by the ongoing energy crisis (Hudec, 2022b). While the other V4 countries achieved a year-on-year increase in industry production, production in Slovakia fell by 2.6% (ibid.). Despite a slight increase on the month-on-month, there is ground to be cautious since experts doubt a quick long-term recovery for Slovakia and “expect industry production to fall even deeper in the next few months” (ibid.). Prime minister Eduard Heger even speaks of the risk of a collapse of Slovakia’s economy and urges for support from the European Community (Bounds 2022). Nationalization of Slovakia’s power supplies would be a last resort for the struggling country (ibid.). In spite of being a leading producer of nuclear and hydroelectric energy, in 2022, its largest energy supplier made the pricey choice to turn to energy dealers for the sale of its surplus electricity. Now, these dealers are reselling the electricity to Slovakia at prices that are around five times the market rate (ibid.). Therefore, viable help and rescue packages from the European Union are necessary to keep the country’s economy afloat (ibid.). The Economic forecast for Slovakia assessed by the European Commission predicted an estimated growth of 1.7% for the year 2022, “real GDP is forecast to increase by 1.5% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 (European Commission 2023). The prognosis is cautious, yet optimistic, since subsidized energy prices are expected to support households and exporters in the current year (ibid.).
Responsible for the high inflation rate of 12% in 2022 are high energy prices and consumer food prices, which are likely to grow further in the upcoming years and together with a tight labor market it amounts to “more persistent growth of prices in the service sector” (ibid.). The anticipated inflation rate for 2023 and 2024 are 9.7% and 5.3% respectively (ibid.).

Governmental Response
The governmental response to relieve the members of the public manifests in several ways. A total of 3.4 billion euros in compensation for the ongoing energy crisis has been budgeted and with a suspension of benefit payments for civil service workers the package amounts to 3.5 billion euros (Spectator 2022). Further, without the help of the European Union the country might be forced to nationalize energy production within the country (ibid.). Additionally, energy prices for companies are capped in order to “ease the impact of soaring bills” and the government is aiming to set a cap at 199 euros per megawatt hour of electricity and a cap at 99 euros for gas. 80% of the costs above these levels are covered by the state (Euronews 2022).
Apart from governmental actions there are several implications of the crisis on the citizens. Many Slovakians are concerned with the energy situation in their country and therefore looking for different measures. According to Otajovicova, “the demand for firewood almost doubled in September compared with last year” (Otajovicova 2022a), with the consequence of heightened risks of deforestation (ibid.). Further, a decrease of electricity consumption among businesses has been monitored for the month of September. The decline amounts to 18% compared to data from last year and can be explained by higher costs of energy (Hudec 2022a). Another implication that affects citizens directly and holds a lot of risk for the country in general is the fact that “energy bills accounted for 10% of average household spending” (Bounds 2022), and the industrial sector is excessively large, which further aggravates the crisis (ibid.). Aluminium producer Slovalco, for example, announced the halt of production on the account of high prices. Slovalco accounts for almost 10% of the national electricity consumption (ibid.).

Policy Advice
Which recommendations can be given to Slovakia at this point? First, it becomes apparent that Slovakia is the V4 country that has been hit hardest by the energy crisis. Additional EU aid, as requested by Heger (Bounds 2022), could protect the small country from long-term economic damage. A rescue package for the citizens was announced and financial resources have been made available, but the response from the population, who are increasingly demanding firewood and thus contributing to deforestation, makes it clear that additional relief is necessary to protect the population from energy poverty.
Another approach can be the expansion of renewable energy. The Slovak Association of the Photovoltaic Industry estimates that about 20% of Slovakian land area is suitable for wind farms (Otajovicova 2022b). However, the only two wind farms that exist so far are in poor condition and not used to their full extent. Additionally, political and bureaucratic obstacles as well as public resistance, hinder the implementation of new wind farm projects (ibid.). Other renewable sources of energy include the use of hydropower plants, which are responsible for Slovakia being the V4 country with the highest output for renewable energy. They produce 17% of Slovakia’s renewable energy production, followed by solar power, which amounts to 540 MW of energy (ibid.). Given Slovakia’s position concerning renewable energy and the potential that can be achieved with wind farms, the most important policy advice calls for a long-term transition to renewable energy. With this, Slovakia can kill two birds with one stone and gain independence from Russian gas as well as counteract climate change.

  1. Poland

Context and Impact
Poland bordering Ukraine has faced an acute energy crisis thanks to the rising costs of coal, inadequate supply of fossil gas, and limitations of renewable energy products. The prolonged energy threat could pose a major challenge to Poland’s residents in the 2023 winter as the gas reserves continue to deplete. Moreover, it has received over 1.5 million immigrants from Ukraine (Statista, 2023) being the highest in the EU, which has further increased demand for energy and added risk to economic decline.
Poland, in recent years has vouched to shift to a greener economy in line with REPowerEU to be independent of Russian fossil fuels. The country has also set forward many goals to reduce its carbon footprint. However, increasing energy poverty poses a risk to the transition to cleaner energy sources, particularly as hard coal and lignite continue to dominate the country’s energy production. These fossil fuels contributed up to 70.8% of its electricity production in 2021. While this percentage is lower than the 86.6% recorded in 2010, it still falls short of meeting the EU’s 2050 climate neutrality targets and ensuring affordable energy access in the future (Taylor, 2022). Additionally, Russian coal imports were banned on April 14, 2022, which comprised about 20% of Poland’s coal supply and was widely used by households and small power plants.
Economic hardship is set for the families of those employed in the mining sector as the jobs are decreasing, there were up to 84,000 coal miners in Poland in 2019, and the country plans to shut down its mines by 2049. The traditional belief that coal is necessary for Poland’s energy security is being challenged due to increasing coal prices and supply shortages (Kaczmarek, Kolegowicz, and Szymla 2022).
The dependence on coal is also impacting energy businesses attempting to transition to cleaner sources, as they are required to purchase costly pollution permits through the EU emissions trading mechanism. The financial and energy security situation in Poland and Europe remains challenging, with costs rising and wages not keeping pace.

Governmental Response
The Polish government aims to increase the percentage of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption to 21-23% by 2030, with the goal of expanding the use of renewable energy sources. Therefore, it’s vital to improve the accessibility of renewable energy to ensure a successful transition (Romano 2022).
Under the “Solidarity Shield” program, Poland is planning on spending more than PLN 30 billion (EUR 6.34 billion) on measures to support energy-intensive businesses and prevent residential electricity costs from increasing. Additionally, households that consume up to 2000 kilowatt-hours per year, prices will remain frozen and a reduction of energy prices is proposed for those households that consume less energy. In order to secure financing for liquidity, the government has also given up to PLN 55 billion (EUR 11.6 bn) in state guarantees to the state-controlled gas company PGNiG. A PLN 10 billion (EUR 2.1 billion) fund was established to make up for the disparity between market gas prices and the prices that the companies charge their residential customers (IEA 2022).

Policy Advice
From the analysis above, it can be observed that Poland’s efforts to reduce coal use and switch to gas are not enough to tackle the country’s energy crisis. Therefore, it is recommended that the government to expand its recent efforts to liberalize the domestic energy market. By reducing the state’s control on corporations in the energy sector, it will allow the market to grow. In addition to this, various forms of governance and new technologies can be used to accelerate the process of building the six nuclear facilities in Poland by 2040, which is expected to cover 16% of its energy generation. However, the entire strategy will need to be executed promptly to meet its deadlines (IEA, 2021).
Natural gas has played a huge role in contributing to the energy crisis, but it is not the only solution; this is the right time for Poland to divert more of its resources and finances to its decarbonization policy, laying greater emphasis on heat pumps and building upgrades. Moreover, the government should provide incentives and support for the transition to renewable energy sources to make them more accessible and affordable for households and businesses in terms of subsidies, low-interest rate loans etc. (Romano, 2022).
Lastly, the government should invest in research and development, infrastructure, and policies that support renewable energy adoption by expanding its renewable energy capacity to meet the targets of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). This plan aims to increase the percentage of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption to 21-23% by 2030 (Taylor, 2022).
Poland is going through a rocky transition, and it is of great significance that the country stays on track to achieve its energy objectives to not undergo the same crisis ever again. It needs to align its goals with those of the EU and work closely with its fellow member states to put an end to the dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

  1. Hungary

Context and Impact
Being one of the most affected countries by the high levels of inflation and the sanctions against Russia, Hungary is currently going through a harsh crisis that might delegitimize its administration. Hungary’s position in the Visegrad Group has been, since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, a controversial one. Viktor Orban has criticized the EU’s sanctions against Russia, emphasizing their lack of effectiveness in weakening the Russian aggression and considering their outcome a direct attack towards Hungary’s national security while creating a surge in electricity and food prices.
In the last few years, Hungary’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels has increased drastically. Because of its scarce domestic resources, Hungary’s import dependency stood at 87% in 2020. Russia accounted for 64% of crude oil imports and 95% of gas imports (IEA, 2022). The inflation level that the Hungarian state has to battle through is one of the highest in Europe, reaching over 20% (Moldicz, 2022). The issue is: how can Hungary become energy efficient and independent from Russia’s exports?

Governmental Response
In July 2022, while also declaring the state of danger due to the developing energy crisis, the Hungarian government also decided upon other points of action, such as the restarting of the Mátra coal power plant, the life extension of the Paks nuclear plant, the implementation of the ban on energy sources and firewood export, the subsidizing of energy consumption of energy-intensive companies (IEA, 2022) by the government, which will pay half of the increase in energy prices (up to 500.000 euros), and many other measures.
Hungary’s current objectives mention both nuclear and fossil fuel-powered energy. However, the Mátra power plant is put at a halt for reparations since the end of September due to malfunctions in operability. Therefore, the best solution for Hungary that would grant it energy security and independence is the green transition. Overall, the country’s performance regarding the use of renewable energy has been increasing in the past few years, even if it has not reached the government’s 2030 ambition of 21% in gross final energy consumption yet. Solar photovoltaic power is a viable alternative now for Hungary, although, in the colder season, the grid cannot fully satisfy the demand. The life extension of the four nuclear reactors at the Paks NPP could be the key to the slow phase-out of fossil fuels. The nuclear energy produced would guarantee half of the country’s energy supply. Two more reactors are planned to be built at Paks II according to the agreement with the Russian state-owned company Rosatom (Than, 2022). The EU’s 10th sanctions package posed a threat towards importing Russian uranium, but due to extensive diplomatic efforts of many European states, it will not sanction Russia’s nuclear exports (Hovet & Szakacs, 2023). The spike in fuel and energy prices caused by the war has put the Hungarian budget under strain as well. Household retail prices for natural gas and electricity have long been capped in Hungary “to keep prices for households affordable and avoid exposing them to price volatility” (Than, 2022). This price capping left significant holes in the Hungarian budget that need to be filled through tax modifications. As of August 2022, in the case of passing the imposed consumption limit, the retail prices are increased towards market prices.

Policy Advice
As inflation continues to rise and the war in Ukraine keeps on lingering, the Hungarian administration is losing its connection with civil society. Although price capping for gas and food remains, the Hungarian population has a hard time paying its bills, some even giving up their apartment life and moving to the countryside in favour of living in yurts for a more cost-effective approach. Luckily, multiple recommendations could help the country overcome its situation. First of all, Hungary has potential in geothermal and wind power and it should invest more in such renewable energy-producing facilities. If all renewable energy power plants were to be used to their full potential, the country could close its last coal-powered plant in less than 5 years; hence the creation of the Hungarian Geothermal Cluster meant for knowledge sharing on regulation issues to encourage the use of geothermal energy in Hungary (Cariaga, 2023). Second of all, it is important how the country will manage the green transition while providing adequate support for the communities involved in the Mátra coal plant. Those affected by the transition should benefit from the government’s support by being able to re-qualify themselves and having priority in occupying vacant posts in the field of renewables.
Third of all, the administration lacks experts in the areas of energy efficiency policy design, funding, implementation, and evaluation. The government should support the implementation of an energy efficiency agency responsible for facilitating access to renewable energy programs.
The list of recommendations could go on. In the case of Hungary, the dependency on Russian fuel proved the administration wrong in their ideological battle against the EU. It is about time European countries used their green energy potential and refused to burn terrorist-sustaining oil and gas in an era of sustainable innovation.

  1. Conclusion

The impact of the crises over the last three years on the countries discussed is undeniable. The chain of events that led to the current situation across Europe was unexpected and caught decision-makers unprepared. Although the first winter following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine has been mild, it does not mean that the energy crisis has been fully addressed or resolved. It is crucial for each European economy to adapt its strategies for more sustainable economic development. The common goal should be to invest in long-term solutions and facilitate an energy transition that liberates Europe from Russia’s energy dominance (Gosling 2023). In light of the climate crisis, it is particularly important to invest in renewable energies and establish the groundwork for greener policies and more sustainable societal behaviour.

Each of the countries examined possesses significant potential in the field of renewables, but they lack the necessary resources and appropriate legislative frameworks to implement projects that could replace fossil fuel industries. Our recommendations can be considered as practical initial steps in addressing the energy crisis with viable solutions, which, in the long run, will contribute to overall economic and societal growth.

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