Most Serbs support Putin’s war in Ukraine. Why?

The nation of Serbia, along with its numerous former geopolitical incarnations, has historically enjoyed good relations with Russia. This friendship seems to have solidified in recent years. It is so strong, that Serbia today, together with Belarus, remains the only European country that has not imposed sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Not only that, the majority of the Serbian population supports the war, with 82% of Serbs opposing Western sanctions, and two-thirds blaming NATO for starting the war. 

However, a closer look at recent history calls this unwavering support into question. The Russia-Serbia partnership is built on dishonest foundations, and is skewed heavily in favor of the former. Whatever Serbia gets from its partner, it pays for with economic and political dependency. So then, why do Serbs overwhelmingly support Russia? Aswell as its war in Ukraine? In brief, it’s because of historic relations, political support, investment, and propaganda. This first article of a two-part series digs into the above-mentioned factors, along with outlining their development.

The second part will address the following question: Who are the relevant stakeholders in Serbia, what are their interests, and how does Serbian support for the war affect the situation on the ground? 

A combination of factors

Despite being geographically rather separate, and Serbia being surrounded by NATO and EU members, the Serbian people have maintained a close bond with the Russians for centuries. Cultural, linguistic and religious ties matter, but they don’t tell the full story. Both are Slavic countries, both use the Cyrillic alphabet, and their languages are similar. Nonetheless, many other countries share these similarities with Russia, yet are hostile toward it. In order to begin to understand this unusual liaison, we first need to take a look at the historic links between the two.

History

Over the course of the 19^th century, Russia supported Serbia’s fight for independence from the Ottoman empire. This had little to do with a sense of kinship and altruism, and more to do with Russia’s geopolitical ambitions in the Balkan peninsula. In short, the Russian empire wanted to gain a foothold in the area, so it supported every resistance movement against the Turks. In doing so, it represented itself as the defender of Christianity and friend of oppressed peoples. Thus, the image of Russia as a benevolent older brother, aiding the fight for independence, has remained deeply engraved in the Serbian collective consciousness. This alliance continued unabated during the first half of the 20^th century, through the Balkan Wars, WWI, and the emergence of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, up until the Second World War.

The friendship came to a bitter end following WWII, as the new communist government, led by Tito, cut ties with Stalin. At first glance, Yugoslavia’s shift away from the USSR ought to have dampened Serbs’ enthusiasm for their ‘older brother’. However, it had the opposite effect. By removing itself from the USSR’s clutches, Yugoslavia did not experience Soviet repression during the Cold War, and thus the deep fear and hatred towards Russia, so present in other former Communist countries, did not take root.

The Serbian people’s fondness for Russia remained unscathed during the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, despite Russia doing absolutely nothing to aid Serbia’s war effort. In fact, the newly capitalist Russia had, at that time, set a course toward the West, and part of this new strategic orientation involved supporting NATO sanctions on Serbia. Though not going as far as joining NATO in the bombing of Serbia in 1999, Russia did try to mediate and get the Serbian president to back down. In addition, Russia joined the NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. Most shockingly of all, there are reports, which the Kremlin strongly denies, of Russia supplying the Croat independence fighters with arms during their fight against Serbian forces.

Things have changed with the rise of Vladimir Putin to power. His strategic shift away from the West and to the re-establishment of Russia as a global leader boosted Serbia’s geopolitical importance. Suddenly, it was seen as a strategic partner and vehicle for Russian interests in the Balkans, as well as a counterbalance to the spreading Western influence. For Serbia, this resulted in a lot of investment, political backing, and propaganda, other important factors in the friendship. 

Investment

Russia and Serbia cooperate massively in the field of energy, the Balkans being a transit route for Russian gas. In 2008, Gazprom acquired the Serbian state oil producer, NIS. This meant that, effectively, Russia gained complete control of Serbia’s oil processing and distribution, thus rendering the latter’s energy sector heavily dependent. 

Russian economic interests go even further. In the period between 2005 and 2013, Russia invested 600 million Euros in other sectors of Serbia’s economy, and exported goods worth 1.4 billion Euros into its market. This partnership is a double-edged sword for Serbia. Russia has also been providing sizable loans, which it has been unable to repay, leaving it in a sort of debt bondage. The alternative way to repay this debt has, on numerous occasions, been to back Russia politically.

Foreign policy and propaganda

From 2008 to the present, Russia’s political patronage of Serbia has been enacted through two main tracks. Firstly, Russia supports Serbia’s foreign policy, most notably its stance on the Kosovo independence issue. Russia has regularly backed Serbia up in the UNSC, blocking Kosovo’s admittance in international institutions. Also, Russia often sides with Serbia in diplomatic spats over the Yugoslav wars, for example vetoing a UN resolution in 2015 that designated the Srebrenica massacre as genocide.

Secondly, Russia supports Serbian minorities in neighbouring countries, and nurtures ties with them. This is mainly achieved through acts of cultural diplomacy. Russia has branches of state-sponsored organizations and institutes in Serbia and areas abroad with a Serbian population, such as Russkiy Mir, the International Fund for the Unity of Orthodox Nations, and the Russian Institute of Strategic Research. Finally, the Serbian media landscape is rife with domestic pro-Russian, as well as Russian state newspapers, online portals, and magazines. 

Western bogeyman

Running at full speed, the Russian propaganda machine portrays it as a friend of Serbia, united in opposition to a common enemy; the West. This choice of bogeyman is well thought out, as most Serbs hold a grudge against the US, NATO, and the EU. The main reasons for this are the 1999 bombing and the Kosovo question. 

Justified or not, the bombing devastated Serbian infrastructure and killed many civilians. Furthermore, many Serbs believe that the depleted uranium used in the bombs has caused a cancer epidemic, a theory hotly contested by researchers. In contrast, Russia presents itself as a defender of Serbia against the unjust tyranny of their common enemy. Central to this narrative is the status of Kosovo, which unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008. Most NATO and EU countries support the breakaway region, while Serbia’s claim to it is supported by Russia, among others.

The rampant propaganda campaign is aided by Serbs’ belief that the West has historically been out to get them, and that any misfortune to befall the people is the result of shady, backroom deals by Western leaders. In tandem with Russian propaganda efforts, Serbian politicians stoke this belief as a tactic to deflect blame for their own incompetence and corruption. 

Additionally, Russia crafts an image of itself as the protector of tradition and morality, in the face of Western depravity. Serbian society is predominantly patriarchal and conservative, with religion present in all facets of daily life. Russian propaganda portrays the West as trying to gain influence by corrupting Serbia’s virtuous morality through LGBT ideology, feminism, abortion, minority rights, and other ‘leftist plots’. Conversely, Russia is the last bastion of tradition, Christianity, and ‘family values, a very popular term in conservative discourse. As such, siding with Russia against the West means preserving the Serbian way of life, tradition, and, ultimately, nation.

Wrap-up

A lack of reliable sources means that what most Serbs see and hear about Russia and the war in Ukraine is passed through a Putin-shaped prism, and is reinforced by inherent biases. Indeed, the most obvious evidence of Serbian alignment is the way in which the war in Ukraine is framed. The arguments used by Serbian politicians and ordinary citizens to defend it closely echo those of Russian state media.

Looking at the bigger picture, the average Serb has few, if any, reasons to support Russia. However, the average person rarely has access to the bigger picture. Furthermore, they ought to have even less cause to support a war that is directly harming their everyday life. This topic, the effects of the war on Serbian society and its future, will be dealt with in the second part of the article.