This article, the second part of an analysis of Serbia’s attitude towards Russia, focuses on the implications of the war in Ukraine, from both a geopolitical and individual perspective. Its predecessor outlined how most Serbs support Russia and Putin and detailed the political and historical reasons for this. Building on these findings, we jump to present-day Serbia.

What does a Russia-friendly Serbia mean for the various stakeholders in the context of the war in Ukraine? For Putin, it means, first and foremost, not having another enemy on European soil, even a moderate ally. For the Serbian government, it means having its hands tied, and being caught between a rock and a hard place. For the political West, it’s not much more than a nuisance, a pebble in the shoe, but another Kremlin-related problem to deal with nonetheless.

For ordinary Serbs, it means being caught up in a political proxy war, a very precarious present, and an even more uncertain future. For ordinary Russians, it represents a life-saver and a golden ticket. Finally, for the few Ukrainian refugees who made their way to Serbia, the climate feels more than a bit confusing and unsettling. This mosaic of conflicting interests has created a very unusual and unstable situation on the ground in Serbia.

The geopolitics

Serbia’s unique position as the only non-antagonistic country in Europe, apart from Belarus, is a welcome reprieve for Vladimir Putin. Despite falling short of Lukashenko-level support, Serbia is a useful instrument for enacting Russian interests. As such, Serbia can be seen as Putin’s window to Europe, both a periscope and an extended hand. Agents working for the Kremlin are free to conduct their operations on European soil, and those with a Serbian passport can do so in the West as well.

On the other hand, Serbia is also a bit of a headache. As Russians are free to travel to and from Serbia, many of Putin’s potential soldiers have fled the country. This has created a shortage of manpower, both at home and on the front. Nonetheless, a friendly Serbian people and a non-hostile government certainly do more good than harm to Russian interests.

The same cannot be said for the EU, and the West in general. Unwilling to join the sanctions, Serbia is an unwanted obstruction to the European effort of presenting Putin with a united front. While punishing Serbia severely by, say, cutting it off from EU donations might seem tempting, such a move would be extremely short-sighted. It could potentially turn Serbia into a second Belarus. 

Therefore, the West must perform a careful balancing act towards Belgrade. Inaction would give free rein to domestic pro-Russian elements and paint the West as disinterested or, even worse, weak. In contrast, too drastic measures would risk handing Serbia over to Putin completely. For now, the carrot-and-stick approach of continuing EU accession talks and conditioning Belgrade to move away from Moscow, remains in place.

Officially, Serbia is neutral. Nonetheless, the government, headed by Aleksandar Vučić, has little room for maneuver. Due to many economic and political constraints, as detailed in the previous article, Vučić is unable to cut Putin off. Imposing sanctions on Russia is out of the question, as it would cripple the economy and derail Serbia’s foreign policy ambitions, most notably with regards to Kosovo. To compound matters, doing so would be a PR nightmare, and would likely result in mass unrest and lost elections. In short, any drastic move against Russia would spell disaster for the government. 

On the other hand, no move means being on the West’s bad side. This would also lead to economic hardship, as Serbia depends on Western investment and donations. In addition, the country has the status of an EU candidate, and Vučić’s party is, at least nominally, pro-European. For now, the government tries to remain as inoffensive as possible.

The policy of ‘sitting on two chairs’ has been successfully employed by Vučić’s government for many years. In the context of the war, it has meant operating in a very narrow window. Belgrade is satisfying the West by passing resolutions condemning the invasion and curtailing the actions of Russian agents, such as the Wagner group, on Serbian soil. At the same time, the government stopped short of imposing sanctions on Russia.

However, it seems increasingly likely that Vučić will have to make a difficult decision in the near future. The EU’s patience is not infinite, and it is possible that Serbia will be presented with an ultimatum. Conversely, if the war continues going south for Putin, he might be tempted to force Serbia’s hand and blackmail it into providing support on the ground. 

Serbia seems to have dug itself into a Russia-shaped hole. Whatever happens next in Ukraine, and whatever steps the government takes next, will profoundly shape the lives of Serbs for years, even decades, to come.

Everyday citizens are seldom able to influence these lofty geopolitical aspirations and puzzles. Moreover, studies and analyses tend to overlook the very real hopes, fears, and dilemmas faced by ordinary people. Therefore, let’s take a look at how decisions made by Putin, Vučić, and Brussels affect the lives of people in Serbia, both local and freshly arrived.

The people

Marko puts out his cigarette, and walks into the restaurant. He is there to talk shop, a business developer working for a major beverage company. The joint is a trendy establishment in the center of Belgrade, so Marko knows that an espresso with milk will be more expensive than in other places. But it wasn’t 180 dinars last month, was it? 

Marko does not want to stay a minute longer than necessary. The restaurant is known to be frequented by local pro-Western artists and intellectuals, whom Marko considers as traitors. As can be expected of such people, they support the West in Ukraine.

While he waits for the owner to appear, Marko ponders the growing prices. Sugar is up, flour is up, eggs are way up, luxury goods and services are also trending upwards… A guy on the table to his right, by the pop-art picture of Louis Armstrong, is complaining to his friend about how his rent has increased by no less than 50% over the past year.

“It’s because of all the Russians who came, Marko thinks to himself. Cowards! They should stay home and defend their motherland!” 

Marko vividly remembers how, when he was in second grade, the bombs started falling. Since they were living close to an oil refinery, his parents decided that its not safe to remain, so they huddled in his grandparents’ small apartment for two months, waiting for the bombing to end. That same year, his uncle lost an arm fighting the Albanians in Kosovo. As a man who regularly follows Serbian media, Marko is well aware of the evils committed by the West all over the world, and especially against Serbia. Therefore, it was no surprise to him when NATO struck again in Ukraine.

At the other end of the restaurant, two people are enjoying lunch. 

“Did you see the Putin-worshipping rally yesterday? Fools! And the police didn’t move a finger to stop them” Sergei, a native of Moscow in his forties, puts down his fork with a clatter. “If they could see a fraction of what you guys have seen, it would never cross their mind to support that mass murderer.”

Sergei is one of the roughly 200 000 Russians who have found a new home in Serbia since the war began. Benefiting from regular flights and visa-free entry, most of them fled the war and potential mobilization. Some have business interests in the West and wish to evade the wall of sanctions. For others still, Serbia represents a bridge to their relatives in the West. Many of them, like Sergei, are highly skilled professionals who have started businesses in Serbia.

“It’s good that they don’t know. Ignorance is bliss” 

Daryna, who works for Sergei as a User Interface Designer, utters disinterestedly between bites. Originally from Kharkiv, she met and married a Serbian man who came to her city for work. Not long after, they had a son. When the war broke out, the young family fled to his native Belgrade, together with her parents.

“Anyway, everyone I’ve met here has been nice to me, and the little one is accepted at school. But it is annoying to see the big Z on every street corner.”

“Honestly, Daryna, I’m surprised by how you manage to keep a cool head. For me, life in Serbia is great, but when I read about Serbs going off to fight for Putin, and people blaming Ukraine for the war and calling you Nazis…”

“I just ignore it. What else can I do? Besides, we’re safe here and we have a good life.”

“As long as you’re happy.”

On his way to the bathroom, Marko accidentally knocks Sergei’s jacket to the floor, picks it up, and apologizes. They nod to him.