Spain has been without a government since mid-July, and it doesn’t appear that this situation will change in the foreseeable future. There are many factors to highlight, but the three main ones are: How Spain’s current Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez rose to power, the May State and Municipal elections, and the Catalan conflict.

Sánchez is the seventh Prime Minister to serve since Spain’s first democratic elections in 1978. He previously led a government from 2018 to 2020 and this current government, formed in 2020, is his second. Sánchez assumed power when El Congreso de los Diputados (the lower chamber of parliament) passed his proposal of a vote of no confidence against the then Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy. In 2019, as Sánchez did not have a majority in El Congreso to pass the General Budget, he was forced to call elections for 2020. However, these elections had to be repeated because he didn’t secure an absolute majority and couldn’t reach an agreement with the other parties. After the second round of elections, Sánchez signed an agreement with the second most powerful left-wing party, Unidas Podemos, which allowed him to become Prime Minister. This agreement included a clause stipulating that certain ministries had to belong to Podemos, marking the first bipartisan government in Spain’s democratic history.

On May 28th, 2023, Autonomical and Municipal elections were held, in which the PP (Sánchez’s rival party), overwhelmingly defeated the PSOE (Social democrat party). To illustrate the gravity of the situation, the Provincial Council of Huesca which had been under PSOE control since 1978, is now governed by the PP (Popular Party). In an attempt to reverse the situation in the upcoming December General Elections, Sánchez dissolved the Chambers and called early elections in mid-July. Despite the controversial choice of the election date, voter turnout was not significantly affected. The results took a surprising turn when Sánchez didn’t lose any seats but managed to actually gain one. On the other hand, the extreme right lost 19 seats to the PP, who despite having the most seats (137), couldn’t get their leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo elected as Prime Minister.

With Feijóo unable to gather enough support for his candidacy, as proven by his failed investiture debate in September, it is now Sánchez’s turn to work towards a new stable government. His main obstacle is precisely the same issue that brought him to power: the Catalan independence movement. Currently, there are two separate independence parties with national parliamentary representation: Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and Junts. They used to govern in coalition in the Generalitat de Catalunya (Regional Government of Catalonia). However, after years of jointly advocating for independence, Junts decided to leave the coalition leaving ERC with a minority in the Catalan parliament. This forced them to negotiate with the PSOE to pass laws.

Junts is asking Sánchez for an amnesty law for their exiled leaders, such as the famous Generalitat ex-president and current MEP, Carles Puigdemont. These leaders went into exile in 2018 after Rajoy’s cabinet issued arrest warrants against them for violating the Constitution by organizing an illegal referendum in Catalonia using public funds. Puigdemont was tried and found innocent in Germany. However, he was accused of rebellion, not sedition or embezzlement of funds, which is what he is accused of in Spain. He was later elected as an MEP, granting him parliamentary immunity; which was later waived due to the fact that the alleged crimes he had committed occurred prior to his election as an MEP. Therefore, he should still stand trial for those crimes. The amnesty law would, among other things, mean that Puigdemont is free to return to Spain and run for the presidency if he wishes.

Sánchez has not taken a clear stance on the topic. However, the Sumar party (formerly known as Unidas Podemos) leader Yolanda Díaz met with Puigdemont to negotiate his support for Sánchez’s candidacy in Brussels. The clock is ticking for Pedro Sánchez as the date approaches to either call new elections or approve an amnesty law, which some consider unconstitutional. Others argue it is necessary for Spanish and Catalan societies to move towards a more peaceful future. As a result, Spaniards risk having the unofficially fascist party in the government if there is another election.

Update: On Thursday 9th of November, Pedro Sánchez announced an agreement between PSOE and Junts, securing the independence force’s support for Sánchez’s investiture. This provides him with 179 votes, three more than needed to become Prime Minister. Sánchez had to negotiate agreements with seven parties, including two major players in the independence movement.

The agreement with Junts highlights the Catalan people’s desire to determine their fate within Spain. It includes an amnesty law for civilians and leaders involved in the 2018 independence process trial, along with commissions to investigate the trial’s politicization. Junts also demanded an extension of Catalonia’s participation in European institutions, changes to Autonomous Communities’ funding, the right to propose a self-determination referendum for Catalonia, and defense of the 2006 Autonomy Statute. Amnesty details are pending confirmation, with PSOE ensuring adherence to legal frameworks and constitutional principles. In exchange of this, Junts promises to safeguard the stability of the legislature.

Amid these political developments, violent protests are erupting in major Spanish cities. Radical demonstrators are attacking regional PSOE branches’ headquarters. Twenty-four people have been arrested, seven law enforcement agents are injured, and some protesters are displaying Francoist symbols and anthems. This reflects the increasing radicalization of certain political groups, posing potential threats to the normal functioning of democracy.